Application and investigation of a bound for outcome reporting bias

BACKGROUND: Direct empirical evidence for the existence of outcome reporting bias is accumulating and this source of bias is recognised as a potential threat to the validity of meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials. METHODS: A method for calculating the maximum bias in a meta-analysis due to publication bias is adapted for the setting where within-study selective non-reporting of outcomes is suspected, and compared to the alternative approach of missing data imputation. The properties of both methods are investigated in realistic small sample situations. RESULTS: The results suggest that the adapted Copas and Jackson approach is the preferred method for reviewers to apply as an initial assessment of robustness to within-study selective non-reporting. CONCLUSION: The Copas and Jackson approach is a useful method for systematic reviewers to apply to assess robustness to outcome reporting bias

Melatonin for sleep problems in children with neurodevelopmental disorders: randomised double masked placebo controlled trial

Objective To assess the effectiveness and safety of melatonin in treating severe sleep problems in children with neurodevelopmental disorders. Design 12 week double masked randomised placebo controlled phase III trial. Setting 19 hospitals across England and Wales. Participants 146 children aged 3 years to 15 years 8 months were randomised. They had a range of neurological and developmental disorders and a severe sleep problem that had not responded to a standardised sleep behaviour advice booklet provided to parents four to six weeks before randomisation. A sleep problem was defined as the child not falling asleep within one hour of lights out or having less than six hours’ continuous sleep. Interventions Immediate release melatonin or matching placebo capsules administered 45 minutes before the child’s bedtime for a period of 12 weeks. All children started with a 0.5 mg capsule, which was increased through 2 mg, 6 mg, and 12 mg depending on their response to treatment. Main outcome measures Total sleep time at night after 12 weeks adjusted for baseline recorded in sleep diaries completed by the parent. Secondary outcomes included sleep onset latency, assessments of child behaviour, family functioning, and adverse events. Sleep was measured with diaries and actigraphy. Results Melatonin increased total sleep time by 22.4 minutes (95% confidence interval 0.5 to 44.3 minutes) measured by sleep diaries (n=110) and 13.3 (−15.5 to 42.2) measured by actigraphy (n=59). Melatonin reduced sleep onset latency measured by sleep diaries (−37.5 minutes, −55.3 to −19.7 minutes) and actigraphy (−45.3 minutes, −68.8 to −21.9 minutes) and was most effective for children with the longest sleep latency (P=0.009). Melatonin was associated with earlier waking times than placebo (29.9 minutes, 13.6 to 46.3 minutes). Child behaviour and family functioning outcomes showed some improvement and favoured use of melatonin. Adverse events were mild and similar between the two groups. Conclusions Children gained little additional sleep on melatonin; though they fell asleep significantly faster, waking times became earlier. Child behaviour and family functioning outcomes did not significantly improve. Melatonin was tolerable over this three month period. Comparisons with slow release melatonin preparations or melatonin analogues are required. Trial registration ISRCT No 05534585

The effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the health impact of climate change:a systematic review of systematic reviews

Climate change is likely to be one of the most important threats to public health in the coming years. Yet despite the large number of papers considering the health impact of climate change, few have considered what public health interventions may be of most value in reducing the disease burden. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the disease burden of high priority climate sensitive diseases

Mathematical model insights into arsenic detoxification

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arsenic in drinking water, a major health hazard to millions of people in South and East Asia and in other parts of the world, is ingested primarily as trivalent inorganic arsenic (iAs), which then undergoes hepatic methylation to methylarsonic acid (MMAs) and a second methylation to dimethylarsinic acid (DMAs). Although MMAs and DMAs are also known to be toxic, DMAs is more easily excreted in the urine and therefore methylation has generally been considered a detoxification pathway. A collaborative modeling project between epidemiologists, biologists, and mathematicians has the purpose of explaining existing data on methylation in human studies in Bangladesh and also testing, by mathematical modeling, effects of nutritional supplements that could increase As methylation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop a whole body mathematical model of arsenic metabolism including arsenic absorption, storage, methylation, and excretion. The parameters for arsenic methylation in the liver were taken from the biochemical literature. The transport parameters between compartments are largely unknown, so we adjust them so that the model accurately predicts the urine excretion rates of time for the iAs, MMAs, and DMAs in single dose experiments on human subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We test the model by showing that, with no changes in parameters, it predicts accurately the time courses of urinary excretion in mutiple dose experiments conducted on human subjects. Our main purpose is to use the model to study and interpret the data on the effects of folate supplementation on arsenic methylation and excretion in clinical trials in Bangladesh. Folate supplementation of folate-deficient individuals resulted in a 14% decrease in arsenicals in the blood. This is confirmed by the model and the model predicts that arsenicals in the liver will decrease by 19% and arsenicals in other body stores by 26% in these same individuals. In addition, the model predicts that arsenic methyltransferase has been upregulated by a factor of two in this population. Finally, we also show that a modification of the model gives excellent fits to the data on arsenic metabolism in human cultured hepatocytes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The analysis of the Bangladesh data using the model suggests that folate supplementation may be more effective at reducing whole body arsenic than previously expected. There is almost no data on the upregulation of arsenic methyltransferase in populations chronically exposed to arsenic. Our model predicts upregulation by a factor of two in the Bangladesh population studied. This prediction should be verified since it could have important public health consequences both for treatment strategies and for setting appropriate limits on arsenic in drinking water. Our model has compartments for the binding of arsenicals to proteins inside of cells and we show that these comparments are necessary to obtain good fits to data. Protein-binding of arsenicals should be explored in future biochemical studies.</p

Duration of intravenous antibiotic therapy for children with acute osteomyelitis or septic arthritis: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: There is little current consensus regarding the route or duration of antibiotic treatment for acute osteomyelitis (OM) and septic arthritis (SA) in children. OBJECTIVE: To assess the overall feasibility and inform the design of a future randomised controlled trial (RCT) to reduce the duration of intravenous (i.v.) antibiotic use in paediatric OM and SA. DESIGN: (1) A prospective service evaluation (cohort study) to determine the current disease spectrum and UK clinical practice in paediatric OM/SA; (2) a prospective cohort substudy to assess the use of targeted polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing paediatric OM/SA; (3) a qualitative study to explore families' views and experiences of OM/SA; and (4) the development of a core outcome set via a systematic review of literature, Delphi clinician survey and stakeholder consensus meeting. SETTING: Forty-four UK secondary and tertiary UK centres (service evaluation). PARTICIPANTS: Children with OM/SA. INTERVENTIONS: PCR diagnostics were compared with culture as standard of care. Semistructured interviews were used in the qualitative study. RESULTS: Data were obtained on 313 cases of OM/SA, of which 218 (61.2%) were defined as simple disease and 95 (26.7%) were defined as complex disease. The epidemiology of paediatric OM/SA in this study was consistent with existing European data. Children who met oral switch criteria less than 7 days from starting i.v. antibiotics were less likely to experience treatment failure (9.6%) than children who met oral switch criteria after 7 days of i.v. therapy (16.1% when switch was between 1 and 2 weeks; 18.2% when switch was > 2 weeks). In 24 out of 32 simple cases (75%) and 8 out of 12 complex cases (67%) in which the targeted PCR was used, a pathogen was detected. The qualitative study demonstrated the importance to parents and children of consideration of short- and long-term outcomes meaningful to families themselves. The consensus meeting agreed on the following outcomes: rehospitalisation or recurrence of symptoms while on oral antibiotics, recurrence of infection, disability at follow-up, symptom free at 1 year, limb shortening or deformity, chronic OM or arthritis, amputation or fasciotomy, death, need for paediatric intensive care, and line infection. Oral switch criteria were identified, including resolution of fever for ≥ 48 hours, tolerating oral food and medicines, and pain improvement. LIMITATIONS: Data were collected in a 6-month period, which might not have been representative, and follow-up data for long-term complications are limited. CONCLUSIONS: A future RCT would need to recruit from all tertiary and most secondary UK hospitals. Clinicians have implemented early oral switch for selected patients with simple disease without formal clinical trial evidence of safety. However, the current criteria by which decisions to make the oral switch are made are not clearly established or evidence based. FUTURE WORK: A RCT in simple OM and SA comparing shorter- or longer-course i.v. therapy is feasible in children randomised after oral switch criteria are met after 7 days of i.v. therapy, excluding children meeting oral switch criteria in the first week of i.v. therapy. This study design meets clinician preferences and addresses parental concerns not to randomise prior to oral switch criteria being met. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Guidelines for the Content of Statistical Analysis Plans in Clinical Trials.

While guidance on statistical principles for clinical trials exists, there is an absence of guidance covering the required content of statistical analysis plans (SAPs) to support transparency and reproducibility.To develop recommendations for a minimum set of items that should be addressed in SAPs for clinical trials, developed with input from statisticians, previous guideline authors, journal editors, regulators, and funders.Funders and regulators (n = 39) of randomized trials were contacted and the literature was searched to identify existing guidance; a survey of current practice was conducted across the network of UK Clinical Research Collaboration-registered trial units (n = 46, 1 unit had 2 responders) and a Delphi survey (n = 73 invited participants) was conducted to establish consensus on SAPs. The Delphi survey was sent to statisticians in trial units who completed the survey of current practice (n = 46), CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) and SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) guideline authors (n = 16), pharmaceutical industry statisticians (n = 3), journal editors (n = 9), and regulators (n = 2) (3 participants were included in 2 groups each), culminating in a consensus meeting attended by experts (N = 12) with representatives from each group. The guidance subsequently underwent critical review by statisticians from the surveyed trial units and members of the expert panel of the consensus meeting (N = 51), followed by piloting of the guidance document in the SAPs of 5 trials.No existing guidance was identified. The registered trials unit survey (46 responses) highlighted diversity in current practice and confirmed support for developing guidance. The Delphi survey (54 of 73, 74% participants completing both rounds) reached consensus on 42% (n = 46) of 110 items. The expert panel (N = 12) agreed that 63 items should be included in the guidance, with an additional 17 items identified as important but may be referenced elsewhere. Following critical review and piloting, some overlapping items were combined, leaving 55 items.Recommendations are provided for a minimum set of items that should be addressed and included in SAPs for clinical trials. Trial registration, protocols, and statistical analysis plans are critically important in ensuring appropriate reporting of clinical trials

Two-electron spin correlations in precision placed donors in silicon

Substitutional donor atoms in silicon are promising qubits for quantum computation with extremely long relaxation and dephasing times demonstrated. One of the critical challenges of scaling these systems is determining inter-donor distances to achieve controllable wavefunction overlap while at the same time performing high fidelity spin readout on each qubit. Here we achieve such a device by means of scanning tunnelling microscopy lithography. We measure anti-correlated spin states between two donor-based spin qubits in silicon separated by 16 ± 1 nm. By utilising an asymmetric system with two phosphorus donors at one qubit site and one on the other (2P−1P), we demonstrate that the exchange interaction can be turned on and off via electrical control of two in-plane phosphorus doped detuning gates. We determine the tunnel coupling between the 2P−1P system to be 200 MHz and provide a roadmap for the observation of two-electron coherent exchange oscillations

Cigarette smoke-induced pulmonary emphysema in scid-mice. Is the acquired immune system required?

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with a chronic inflammatory response of the host to chronic exposure to inhaled toxic gases and particles. Although inflammatory cells of both the innate and adaptive immune system infiltrate the lungs in pulmonary emphysema and form lymphoid follicles around the small airways, the exact role of the acquired immune system in the pathogenesis of emphysema is not known. METHODS: In this study, wild type Balb/c mice and immunodeficient scid mice – which lack functional B- and T-cells – were exposed to mainstream cigarette smoke (CS) for 5 weeks or 6 months. RESULTS: Subacute CS-exposure for 5 weeks significantly increased innate inflammatory cells (neutrophils, macrophages and dendritic cells) in the bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid of wild type mice and scid mice, which correlated with the CS-induced upregulation of the chemokines Monocyte Chemotactic Protein-1, Macrophage Inflammatory Protein-3α and KC (= mouse Interleukin-8). Chronic CS-exposure for 6 months significantly increased the number of neutrophils, macrophages, dendritic cells, CD4(+ )and CD8(+ )T-lymphocytes in BAL fluid and lungs of wild type mice compared to air-exposed littermates, and augmented the size and number of peribronchial lymphoid follicles. In contrast, neither B-lymphocytes, nor T-lymphocytes, nor lymphoid follicles could be discerned in the lungs of air- or CS-exposed scid mice. Importantly, chronic CS-exposure induced pulmonary emphysema in both wild type animals and scid mice, as evidenced by a significant increase in the mean linear intercept and the destructive index of CS-exposed versus air-exposed animals. The CS-induced emphysema was associated with increased mRNA expression of matrix metalloproteinase-12 in the lungs and increased protein levels of Tumor Necrosis Factor-α in the BAL fluid of CS-exposed Balb/c and scid mice compared to air-exposed littermates. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the adaptive immune system is not required per se to develop pulmonary emphysema in response to chronic CS-exposure, since emphysema can be induced in scid mice, which lack lymphoid follicles as well as functional B- and T-cells